The NFL Combine is a necessary tool for scouts to supplement the evaluation process with measurements, test times, medical checks, and interviews. I'd advise, however, to be wary of workout warriors whose measurables seem too enticing to pass up despite actual game tape showing less than quality play. Coaches often believe no challenge is too big and that outstanding athletes are pieces of clay to mold, when the truth is these players received college coaching and likely have been taught proper technique. They just have not implemented it.
I watch the Combine for two reasons: 1) To see if test numbers match a player's on-field skills and attributes. 2) To highlight players whose athleticism far out-tests my previous perception. For intriguing players, I allow myself the necessary amount of exposures until I determine whether he flashes that raw potential or not. If surprising measurables do not result in on-field production, I leave the grade as is. "Potential" and "upside" are buzz words this time of year that usually accompany a positive connotation, but as longtime University of Texas Head Football Coach Darrell Royal once said, "Potential means you ain't done it yet." There are rare cases of players "flipping the switch," but it is quite difficult to predict which ones will.
The NFL is not a track meet. If a player maximizes his tools to produce at a consistent level, I see no reason to doubt his on-field ability because he doesn't run particularly fast on a stopwatch. Players should not be upgraded or downgraded based solely on Combine results until more game film is watched.
Issues with the Combine
Speaking of stopwatches, this year's "official" 40 results struck a nerve. These times, distributed by National Football Scouting, are done electronically. They start with the player's initial hand movement and end when his torso crosses an invisible line. Maybe it was the noticeable variance from NFL Network's "unofficial" handheld times. What makes the electronic times "official?" NFL teams do not use them; they use 40 times collected by multiple scouts on separate stopwatches. Because electronic times start with first hand movement, some players' times suffered due to the inexperience of running in one motion from a three-point stance.
I find it hard to believe a single team clocked Baylor WR Kendall Wright at 4.61, his "official" time. In the coming weeks, I will time my own 40s from Combine replays and work to acquire actual times from NFL sources. For now, I will be using the unofficial stopwatch times.
My biggest complaint from the last four days is the growing lack of participation. These players are entering a competitive business in which confidence in their abilities is an absolute requirement in order to succeed. When a healthy player sits out any portion of the Combine, it shows either a lack of confidence or competitiveness, or that the player is hiding something. The truth will inevitably emerge.
Quarterbacks
Andrew Luck (6-4/234), Stanford - Luck's exceptional test results weren't shocking. We saw flashes of his top athletic ability at Stanford; a one-handed sideline catch and a 58-yard run featuring a jarring stiff arm to Cal S Sean Cattouse. While the 4.59 forty, 10'4" broad jump, and 36" vertical are on par with Cam Newton's 2011 Combine measurables, resist the temptation to compare the two. Luck will not have repeated red-zone running plays called for him by his NFL team, but his agility will allow him to buy time and move the defense while leaving the pocket like Aaron Rodgers or Tony Romo. Luck flashed those skills in college.
Robert Griffin (6-2/223), Baylor - A high-level hurdler, Griffin's athleticism transcends his position. A 4.38 forty, 39" vertical, and 10' broad jump show explosion in every part of his lower half. Griffin's 6'2" plus frame can no longer be questioned, but the Troy Smith-esque way he holds the football -- elbows out -- has led to a lower release and batted balls. The biggest question is whether Griffin's body can hold up with his play style. While RG3 is muscular, he took pounding hits at Baylor and missed significant playing time during his true sophomore season. NFL coaches instructed even a thickly-built runner like Cam Newton to avoid contact, so Griffin must adjust similarly. The workout numbers are off the charts, but I still do not consider him in Andrew Luck's "rare" category. Luck throws the football better and his feet move calmly when the pocket is closing. Griffin will not become an elite NFL quarterback because of his ability to run; it has to be with how he throws after sound footwork and decision making. The rest is a bonus. For a glimpse of Griffin's outstanding presence behind closed doors, check out this video.
Kirk Cousins (6-3/214), Michigan State - A three-year captain with 39 career starts, Cousins has plenty of game film for teams to evaluate. He stood out as the Combine's best thrower in passing drills, by all accounts, capitalizing on an opportunity with Luck, Griffin, Ryan Tannehill (foot), and Brock Osweiler (foot) sitting out. Cousins could be termed a safe thrower that fails to test deep sections of the field, but above all successful quarterbacks must make sound decisions -- an area of a passer's game that can only be seen on tape. If Christian Ponder can go in the high first round, it would not surprise me if Cousins sneaks into the top 40. It is tough to not be impressed by how Cousins carries himself in this video.
The NFL Combine is a necessary tool for scouts to supplement the evaluation process with measurements, test times, medical checks, and interviews. I'd advise, however, to be wary of workout warriors whose measurables seem too enticing to pass up despite actual game tape showing less than quality play. Coaches often believe no challenge is too big and that outstanding athletes are pieces of clay to mold, when the truth is these players received college coaching and likely have been taught proper technique. They just have not implemented it.
I watch the Combine for two reasons: 1) To see if test numbers match a player's on-field skills and attributes. 2) To highlight players whose athleticism far out-tests my previous perception. For intriguing players, I allow myself the necessary amount of exposures until I determine whether he flashes that raw potential or not. If surprising measurables do not result in on-field production, I leave the grade as is. "Potential" and "upside" are buzz words this time of year that usually accompany a positive connotation, but as longtime University of Texas Head Football Coach Darrell Royal once said, "Potential means you ain't done it yet." There are rare cases of players "flipping the switch," but it is quite difficult to predict which ones will.
The NFL is not a track meet. If a player maximizes his tools to produce at a consistent level, I see no reason to doubt his on-field ability because he doesn't run particularly fast on a stopwatch. Players should not be upgraded or downgraded based solely on Combine results until more game film is watched.
Issues with the Combine
Speaking of stopwatches, this year's "official" 40 results struck a nerve. These times, distributed by National Football Scouting, are done electronically. They start with the player's initial hand movement and end when his torso crosses an invisible line. Maybe it was the noticeable variance from NFL Network's "unofficial" handheld times. What makes the electronic times "official?" NFL teams do not use them; they use 40 times collected by multiple scouts on separate stopwatches. Because electronic times start with first hand movement, some players' times suffered due to the inexperience of running in one motion from a three-point stance.
I find it hard to believe a single team clocked Baylor WR Kendall Wright at 4.61, his "official" time. In the coming weeks, I will time my own 40s from Combine replays and work to acquire actual times from NFL sources. For now, I will be using the unofficial stopwatch times.
My biggest complaint from the last four days is the growing lack of participation. These players are entering a competitive business in which confidence in their abilities is an absolute requirement in order to succeed. When a healthy player sits out any portion of the Combine, it shows either a lack of confidence or competitiveness, or that the player is hiding something. The truth will inevitably emerge.
Quarterbacks
Andrew Luck (6-4/234), Stanford - Luck's exceptional test results weren't shocking. We saw flashes of his top athletic ability at Stanford; a one-handed sideline catch and a 58-yard run featuring a jarring stiff arm to Cal S Sean Cattouse. While the 4.59 forty, 10'4" broad jump, and 36" vertical are on par with Cam Newton's 2011 Combine measurables, resist the temptation to compare the two. Luck will not have repeated red-zone running plays called for him by his NFL team, but his agility will allow him to buy time and move the defense while leaving the pocket like Aaron Rodgers or Tony Romo. Luck flashed those skills in college.
Robert Griffin (6-2/223), Baylor - A high-level hurdler, Griffin's athleticism transcends his position. A 4.38 forty, 39" vertical, and 10' broad jump show explosion in every part of his lower half. Griffin's 6'2" plus frame can no longer be questioned, but the Troy Smith-esque way he holds the football -- elbows out -- has led to a lower release and batted balls. The biggest question is whether Griffin's body can hold up with his play style. While RG3 is muscular, he took pounding hits at Baylor and missed significant playing time during his true sophomore season. NFL coaches instructed even a thickly-built runner like Cam Newton to avoid contact, so Griffin must adjust similarly. The workout numbers are off the charts, but I still do not consider him in Andrew Luck's "rare" category. Luck throws the football better and his feet move calmly when the pocket is closing. Griffin will not become an elite NFL quarterback because of his ability to run; it has to be with how he throws after sound footwork and decision making. The rest is a bonus. For a glimpse of Griffin's outstanding presence behind closed doors, check out this video.
Kirk Cousins (6-3/214), Michigan State - A three-year captain with 39 career starts, Cousins has plenty of game film for teams to evaluate. He stood out as the Combine's best thrower in passing drills, by all accounts, capitalizing on an opportunity with Luck, Griffin, Ryan Tannehill (foot), and Brock Osweiler (foot) sitting out. Cousins could be termed a safe thrower that fails to test deep sections of the field, but above all successful quarterbacks must make sound decisions -- an area of a passer's game that can only be seen on tape. If Christian Ponder can go in the high first round, it would not surprise me if Cousins sneaks into the top 40. It is tough to not be impressed by how Cousins carries himself in this video.
Running Backs
Robert Turbin (5-10/222), Utah State - Though a bit top heavy, Turbin displayed a 222-pound powerhouse frame and turned in a surprisingly fast 4.44 forty. I have Turbin as a fringe top-ten running back in this year's class, and a two-down player only because of his total inability to pass protect. Due to Turbin's almost overly muscular upper half, I worry about his flexibility and ability to keep his feet. Turbin initiated a lot of contact in the WAC, but NFL hits are an entirely different animal. I also think he lacks one-step planting ability to change directions, as Turbin's poor 3-cone time (7.16, 16th among RBs) and short shuttle (4.31, 14th among RBs) confirmed. Still, Turbin's straight-line speed is certainly enticing for such a well-built runner.
Ronnie Hillman (5-9/200), San Diego State - I have never seen a player utilize the lateral jump cut as frequently as Hillman. Even playing in the Mountain West Conference, the move was consistently unsuccessful and resulted in an alarmingly high number of negative runs. Hillman's burst from a standstill is also not where it should be, which is why I was surprised by his 4.41 forty. I never once saw that speed on Hillman's game tape. Another fringe top-10 running back on my list, Hillman is worth an extra look before the draft but must overhaul his running style.
Doug Martin (5-9/223), Boise State - Martin is a first-round talent and a true three-down back. He compares to Jonathan Stewart on the field, and his test results speak to that notion: 4.47 forty, 28 bench-press reps (tied for best among running backs), 30" vertical, 4.16 20-yard shuttle, and 11.29 60-yard shuttle (second among backs). Above all stands Martin's 3-cone drill (6.79, second at the position), which translates to his on-field ability to change directions quickly from a standstill. Martin's bowling-ball frame helps with balance to break tackles, but do not make the mistake of stereotyping him as a power runner. Martin can wiggle.
Chris Rainey (5-8/180), Florida - Rainey dominated short-area quickness tests, leading all offensive players in the 3-cone (6.50), 20-yard shuttle (3.93), and 60-yard shuttle (11.06). Those three times now lead all running backs since 2006. We know Rainey is an athlete with agility in every area of his game, but where does he play in the NFL? Rainey obviously isn't a featurable runner and will need time to get comfortable at receiver. But with those times and how he separates from the pack in games, Rainey can be an instant contributor on returns.
Wide Receivers
Stephen Hill (6-4/215), Georgia Tech - With a 4.30 forty, 39.5" vertical, 11'1" broad jump, and 49 career receptions, Hill scares me as a potential "workout wonder." NFL teams will get a far better sense of his route running ability and understanding of coverages via in-house workouts and interviews, but I don't have that luxury. Hill ran three routes at Georgia Tech, lacking fluidity and footwork on simple out patterns. While Hill impressed catching the football in the Combine's Gauntlet drill, he's far from a finished product. I will keep a safe third-round grade on him, but teams could get a better sense of his ability. The early second round is a definite possibility.
Kendall Wright (5-10/196), Baylor - I put NFL Network's live video feed of Wright's top forty-yard dash on my own stopwatch, and got times of 4.42, 4.42, and 4.45. His 4.61 "official" was shocking. The way Wright handled his poor starts was still impressive, and he really showed his ability to cut on either his inside or outside foot in one step during pass routes. That kind of crisp footwork is close to unmatched in this receiver class and shows why Wright separates at every level of the field. He will remain my top wide receiver and is the draft's top playmaker.
Michael Floyd (6-3/220), Notre Dame - I was a big fan of Floyd's before the Combine, grading him equally with Justin Blackmon and slightly favoring Floyd because of his versatility to win at any receiver position. With that said, I in no way expected Floyd to run a 4.42. He certainly does not play at that speed, but on a day where Blackmon declined to run and Wright's "official" time was off, Floyd shined. He does exhibit downfield ability on the field.
Tight Ends
Dwayne Allen (6-3/255), Clemson - Allen's 4.84 forty may be disappointing to some, but he was never a vertical threat in the straight-line speed sense. Allen creates separation and wins with his footwork and crisp routes, changing directions quickly with a shifty motion. His 3-cone time of 7.12 seconds and 4.37 20-yard shuttle were both top-five tight end performances and demonstrate Allen's impressive short-area movement skills. What wasn't shown in Indianapolis is his quality blocking ability, where Allen is superior to Stanford's Coby Fleener. Sure, Allen's height is not typical of an in-line tight end, but he could fill either role for a team in the late first or second round with versatility to both block and play receiver in the slot.
Ladarius Green (6-6/238), Louisiana Lafayette - Green is closer to a receiver than a tight end, but has exhibited blocking effort and soft hands to warrant the defense's attention. A 4.48 forty is great, but Green lacks maturity in his movements. As an early third-day pick, Green will have time to grow but can certainly stretch the field and present mismatches with his height. He's my second-ranked "Joker" tight end behind Orson Charles, and will only improve as a route runner.
Offensive Linemen
Matt Kalil (6-7/306), USC - Kalil is the only player in this class that can sniff Andrew Luck's "rare" grade. I absolutely think Kalil is on the same level of Jake Long and Joe Thomas, and he answered questions about his strength (30 bench press reps) and ability to add weight in Indy. Kalil's veteran quality of using his length (34 1/2" arms) to maneuver pass rushers is tough to find in young prospects. Accompany that with balanced footwork and a growing frame and Kalil will be a top-ten left tackle in the NFL sooner than later. I have no doubts about his future.
Cordy Glenn (6-6/345), Georgia - A forty time of 4.96 for a 345-pound behemoth is quite a sight. It's amazing how well Glenn carries his weight, but even more impressive is his strength (31 reps) despite incredibly long arms (35 3/4"). I've mentioned that Glenn bends at the waist too often, but his athleticism makes up for it. Pre-combine, many considered Glenn just a guard prospect despite showing up as the best tackle at the Senior Bowl. This kind of versatility makes Glenn very reliable and valuable. He will go in the top-25 picks.
Mike Adams (6-7/323), Ohio State - My biggest issue all along with Adams has been his inconsistency, specifically his reaction timing and soft play style. His bench press number of a measly 19 reps backs up those concerns. Some may argue the low total was due to Adams' long arms (33 7/8"), but Cal WR Marvin Jones weighs 199 pounds with arms less than an inch shorter and put up 22 reps. I just don't know where Adams fits. His feet and reaction time are too slow for left tackle, and he lacks strength to match up with strong-side ends. I think Adams will be over-drafted as a tackle and have a career similar to Bears 2008 first-round pick Chris Williams.
Defensive Linemen
Dontari Poe (6-4/346), Memphis - Poe is a freak of nature and turned in a workout for the ages. His results show 44 bench reps, a 4.87 forty with a 1.68 ten-yard split, 29.5" vertical, and an 8'8" broad jump. I entered the week with Poe as my third defensive tackle and top nose prospect, but the Haloti Ngata comparisons are reaching. I suppose I see it with the footwork and position versatility, but Poe does not have Ngata production. After starting almost every game in three seasons of C-USA competition, Poe had five sacks and 21.5 tackles for a loss. For a freak athlete, that is very poor. Maybe it is a technique or effort issue, but I cannot warrant giving higher than a late first-round grade considering how often Poe ends up on the ground. Poe will likely be drafted higher than that because it's so difficult to find a player of his size and athleticism. I like him, but maybe just not as much as others reacting to his workout only.
Michael Brockers (6-5/322), LSU - I wrote about Brockers in my Overrated Prospects piece two weeks ago, explaining that his lack of technique covered up his publicized athleticism and resulted in scant production. Since the college season, endless reports have suggested Brockers is a freak athlete that just needs to be refined, even comparing him to Jason Pierre-Paul. I bought into the athlete part, but never saw it on the field. After Brockers' workout it all makes sense; the idea that Brockers is an elite athlete was an absolute myth. He shows little explosion during games and in tests (5.33 forty, 1.77 ten-yard split, 19 bench press reps, 26.5" vertical, 7.46 3-cone, 4.81 shuttle). So now we are left with a player that possesses little to no technique or natural athletic ability, whose lone selling points are length and a thick lower body that produces a solid anchor versus the run. If Brockers is taken in the first 20 picks, he'll be the biggest reach in the 2012 draft.
Melvin Ingram (6-2/264), South Carolina - Somewhat quietly, Ingram had one of the best overall workouts of the 2012 Combine. I still contend his best position is 4-3 defensive end, but limiting Ingram to one position would be selling him short. He looked very fluid in his hips when drop-stepping, and many movements looked effortless. In my Combine preview, I singled out the 3-cone drill as a test that puts speed and power rushers on an equal playing field and seemingly best predicts career success. Ingram's 6.83 time is the third best since 2006. I find it tough to believe he gets past the 12th pick since his on-field success equals his stellar testing.
Nick Perry (6-3/271), USC - Perry has bulked up almost 20 pounds since declaring for the draft and carried it very well in Indy (4.50 forty, 1.56 ten-yard split, 38.5" vertical, 10'4" broad jump). There has been plenty of talk of Perry playing as a strong-side 3-4 outside 'backer, and at that size it would be amazing. However, I still see stiffness in his game in tight spaces and when bending around the edge. Perry's 3-cone (7.25 seconds) and 20-yard shuttle (4.66 seconds) confirmed that stiffness, with neither time cracking the top-15 defensive linemen. Perry can be a solid top-20 pick as a 4-3 end, but he will struggle changing directions in space as a 3-4 OLB.
Linebackers
Mychal Kendricks (5-11/239), California - Kendricks made my Underrated Prospects feature a few weeks ago, and was easily the most impressive linebacker in Indianapolis. Some will question Kendricks because of his short stature, but he plays with an edge and ability to knife through blocks while delivering thumping hits at the line. Kendricks plays close to the same explosiveness of his 4.41 forty, 24 bench press reps, 39.5" vertical, 10'7" broad jump, and 4.19 short shuttle. I said in the article that Kendricks will be an instant starter after being selected on the second day. Now the only question is whether it is at weak-side or inside linebacker. Kendricks has quite a bit of Jon Beason to him.
Luke Kuechly (6-3/242), Boston College - Skeptics doubted Kuechly's athleticism entering the Combine, but he answered every question by landing in the top-five linebackers on almost every possible test (4.50 forty, 38" vertical, 10'3" broad jump, 6.92 3-cone, 4.12 20-yard shuttle, 11.43 60-yard shuttle). Kuechly makes quick decisions and is a missile at the second level. Part of me believes he can play both weak-side and inside linebacker, but how valuable is that to an NFL team? Lately, Patrick Willis and Jerod Mayo seem to be the only non-pass rushing linebackers that have produced to their top-12 draft status.
Vontaze Burfict (6-1/248), Arizona State - Burfict was another prospect listed in my Overrated piece. After running an embarrassing 5.09 forty, Burfict predictably took to the trainers table, ending his day. Burfict is the poster boy for how highlight-reel and YouTube "scouting" is a dangerous thing. He never improved in college, blamed coaches for his poor play during team interviews, and worst of all cannot read or react. Throughout this process I have had Burfict as my fifth inside linebacker with an early fourth-round grade. I think his best NFL position is 4-3 strong-side 'backer, where he has less responsibility and is allowed to make contact on every snap.
Defensive Backs
Stephon Gilmore (6-0/190), South Carolina - Gilmore was overshadowed by fellow SEC corners Morris Claiborne and Dre Kirkpatrick during his college career. However, Gilmore plays at a high level in his own right and is a natural on his outside island. He's best suited for a press scheme and stays in the receiver's hip after jamming at the line. Gilmore is balanced, but his reaction timing is not quite where it should be in off-coverage. After showing positive fluidity in his drops and running 4.40 in Indy, Gilmore's workouts back up his top-25 tape.
Josh Robinson (5-10/199), UCF - A surprise early entry into the draft, Robinson?s best traits are his ball-attacking attitude in midair by undercutting routes, fighting through a big-bodied receiver, and leaving his area to play lofted passes. Robinson frequently high points the ball better than the receivers he's covering, and showed that vertical leap at the combine (38.5?, second among CBs). He is effective after the interception with breakaway speed (4.29 forty) and explosive burst (11?1? broad jump, first among CBs). Robinson best projects in a zone scheme and thrives in underneath coverage. He shadows receivers well but is not a very physical player until the catch point. Robinson?s ability to fluidly switch from receivers that enter his zone and close quickly shows in tests (3.97 20-yard shuttle, 6.55 3-cone). Because of his scheme limitations, Robinson is a later second-day to early third-day prospect.
Source: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39994/60/draft-2012-combine-wrapup
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